Between Climate Change and Sustainable Resilience: How Can the Sahel Resist the Growing Threat of Desertification?

Introduction

The Sahel, a transitional zone between the Sahara Desert and the humid tropical regions, stretches from Senegal to Eritrea and covers approximately 5.4 million square kilometers. This vast semi-arid belt is today considered one of the regions most exposed to climate change. It is home to more than 150 million people, the majority of whom depend directly on rain-fed agriculture, livestock, and local natural resources.

Since the 1970s, the Sahel has experienced major climatic shocks characterized by rising temperatures, decreasing and irregular rainfall, and rapidly deteriorating soils. According to data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2022), temperatures in this region are increasing 1.5 times faster than the global average, while rainfall has become increasingly unpredictable and concentrated. These climatic instabilities have made this fragile region the frontline of climate change; its inhabitants now live according to the rhythm of drought, famine, and migration.

The paradox of the Sahel is this: although it is one of the regions most affected by the consequences of global warming, its contribution to global greenhouse gas emissions is extremely low. This contradiction reflects a profound climate injustice and raises a key question: how can such a vulnerable region remain resilient under the combined pressures of climate, demography, and poverty?

Desertification as an Ecological and Human Process

Contrary to popular belief, desertification does not simply mean the Sahara’s advance southward. The term refers to a complex ecological degradation process caused by both climatic conditions and human activities. According to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), desertification is the permanent degradation of land in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas due to climatic changes and excessive land use.

In the case of the Sahel, desertification manifests as the loss of soil fertility, a reduction in vegetation cover, soil salinization, and the gradual disappearance of water resources. Satellite observations reveal that degraded areas are continuously expanding, especially in Chad, Niger, and Mali. According to FAO (2023), about 45% of Sahel’s land is affected by degradation today, endangering the livelihoods of more than 80 million people.

The causes of this ecological crisis are multifaceted. On one hand, global warming and prolonged droughts reduce agricultural productivity and accelerate soil erosion. On the other, population pressure, deforestation for firewood, and overgrazing exacerbate vegetation loss. This vicious cycle leads rural communities to overexploit their remaining resources as their soils become poorer, which in turn accelerates desertification.

As the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP, 2023) emphasizes, “poverty and land degradation are two mutually reinforcing processes,” turning the Sahel’s landscape into zones of survival and vulnerability.

Drought and Instability: The Sahel’s Double Trap

1. Structural Drought and an Unprecedented Ecological Crisis

Drought in the Sahel is no longer a temporary result of climatic fluctuation. It has become a structural component of the region’s ecological and human landscape. This gradual aridification is explained by changes in rainfall and temperature regimes, which are the two fundamental elements of water balance.

In recent decades, rainfall in the Sahel has shown extreme variability. Rains are now shorter, more intense, and localized. While these torrential downpours cause severe flooding, they prevent the sustainable replenishment of groundwater. This paradox, where rain has become “destructive” rather than “nourishing,” reflects a profound disruption of the regional hydrological cycle.

Data from UNEP (2023) confirm this alarming trend: the Sahel loses more than 10 million hectares of vegetation each year. Water erosion leaves soils bare, and with the loss of plant cover, strong winds sweep away the fertile topsoil. The result is a cycle of reduced productivity that turns into food crises each dry season.

According to the World Bank’s 2023 Climate Report, cereal yields have decreased by 20 to 40 percent over the past two decades, directly threatening the food security of about 50 million people.

Drought also manifests as a decline in surface water resources. Major water bodies such as the Niger River, Lake Chad, and the Senegal River Valley have experienced dramatic reductions in both volume and flow. Lake Chad, which covered 25,000 square kilometers in the 1960s, now measures between 2,500 and 3,000 square kilometers, a decrease of about 90 percent (NASA Earth Observatory data).

This shrinkage has destabilized the economic and political balance of the basin shared by Chad, Niger, Nigeria, and Cameroon, where more than 40 million people live. The decline of fisheries and agricultural resources in the Lake Chad Basin has caused livelihoods to collapse and made communities more vulnerable to armed groups.

2. Political Fragility Exacerbates Climate Shock

These natural constraints are compounded by political and social fragility. Frequent political transitions and unstable governance amplify the effects of climate change. Sahelian states often struggle to develop coherent and sustainable environmental policies due to recurring coups and weak institutions.

National priorities are frequently dictated by the urgent management of security crises, pushing ecological planning to the background. In many countries, anti-desertification efforts are limited to temporary reforestation campaigns without strategic frameworks.

Lack of investment in rural infrastructure, particularly in irrigation, water management, and soil conservation, increases community vulnerability. Since over 70 percent of the regional economy depends on rain-fed agriculture, populations are directly exposed to climatic shocks.

Furthermore, the chronic weakness of local institutions and the absence of clear land policies encourage overuse and mismanagement of resources. Successive military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have interrupted many regional environmental programs, disrupting the continuity of climate adaptation policies.

In contexts where the state struggles to fulfill basic functions, institutional voids lead to uncontrolled local dynamics such as unregulated agricultural expansion, illegal deforestation, conflicts over water resources, and mass internal displacement. These phenomena perpetuate ecological and social stress in a cyclical manner.

3. From Ecological Crisis to Humanitarian Crisis

The combination of drought and instability creates what many researchers call the “Sahel Trap,” a dual ecological and humanitarian crisis.

As natural resources dwindle, tensions between farming and pastoralist communities increase. In central Mali, conflicts over grazing and water points have claimed hundreds of lives in recent years. Similar clashes occur regularly in Burkina Faso and Chad, worsened by the proliferation of small arms and the lack of local mediation.

According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (2024), 30 percent of intercommunal conflicts in the Sahel are directly linked to competition over land and water. This finding clearly demonstrates the link between ecological crises and human security. Climate change has become a “risk multiplier,” exacerbating poverty, triggering mass displacement, and fueling armed violence.

For many experts, this situation now constitutes a “silent ecocide.” Environmental degradation is leading to the disintegration of social and political structures.

Recurrent droughts have had devastating impacts on livelihoods. According to FAO (2022), that year alone the region lost nine million head of livestock. Agricultural losses and growing food insecurity have accelerated mass internal and cross-border migrations. Every year, hundreds of thousands of people migrate to urban centers or neighboring countries in search of more stable living conditions.

The Great Green Wall: Goals, Challenges, and Hopes for Ecological Renewal

1. A Continental Project to Restore Life and Dignity in the Sahel

In response to the severity of desertification and the rapid degradation of land, the African Union launched in 2007 an unprecedented pan-African initiative known as the Great Green Wall for the Sahara and the Sahel (GGWSS). The project aims to restore 100 million hectares of degraded land by 2030, create 10 million green jobs, and sequester 250 million tons of carbon. It spans 11 countries from Senegal to Djibouti, forming an 8,000-kilometer-long, 15-kilometer-wide corridor.

More than just an ecological symbol, the Great Green Wall represents Africa’s vision of renewal. The initiative seeks to transform the Sahel’s arid lands into centers of stability and sustainable development. By restoring soils and reviving ecosystems, it aims to strengthen food security, reduce rural poverty, and slow down forced migration linked to resource loss.

According to a joint study by the World Bank and the UNCCD Global Mechanism (2023), full implementation of the Great Green Wall could generate over 135 billion dollars in net economic benefits in the long term. These benefits include increased agricultural productivity, the creation of new bioeconomy sectors, and the economic use of local forest resources.

Ecologically, restoring 100 million hectares could increase vegetation cover in the Sahel by about 10 percent, help regulate the water cycle, stabilize soils, and protect biodiversity. UNEP (2024) projects that if fully implemented, the program could sequester up to 250 million tons of CO₂ by 2030, making the Sahel one of the largest carbon sinks among developing regions.

Beyond the numbers, the Great Green Wall is a human and political project based on regional cooperation, community mobilization, and the revitalization of traditional knowledge. In a region where 70 percent of people depend on agriculture and livestock, restoring the land is not just an environmental policy; it is a matter of survival and sovereignty.

2. Between Global Goals and Local Realities: Challenges, Slow Progress, and Success Stories

Despite its ambitious vision, the Great Green Wall faces major challenges. According to UNCCD (2023), in more than fifteen years, only 20 million hectares have been restored, just 20 percent of the 2030 target.

The greatest obstacle is the lack of sustainable financing. At the 2021 Great Green Wall Summit in Paris, international partners pledged 19 billion dollars. However, FAO (2024) reports that less than a quarter of these funds have actually been disbursed. Poor donor coordination, bureaucratic delays, and the absence of a unified monitoring mechanism have severely slowed on-the-ground implementation.

These financial hurdles are compounded by weak institutional coordination among member states. Each country acts according to its own priorities, undermining cross-border ecological continuity. Environmental governance suffers from corruption, resource mismanagement, and fragile local institutions. Moreover, ongoing security issues in countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger hinder reforestation efforts and endanger field workers.

Nevertheless, some local initiatives demonstrate that success is possible, provided that communities are involved and methods are adapted to local conditions.

In Niger, over five million hectares of land have been restored through assisted natural regeneration (Régénération Naturelle Assistée - RNA), a simple, low-cost technique based on protecting young shoots within farmlands. This has improved yields, revived biodiversity, and stabilized soils.

In Burkina Faso, the “zaï” technique, which involves digging small pits to capture rainwater, has increased productivity by 100 to 200 percent and improved soil moisture retention.

In Chad, communities around Lake Fitri have successfully stabilized sand dunes and restored grass cover, revitalizing local livestock farming.

In northern Senegal, reforestation programs in Ferlo and Louga have planted more than 80 million trees since 2010. These efforts have helped restore lost animal and plant species and strengthened soils against wind erosion.

Ethiopia is often cited as a model. Through its watershed management policy, more than seven million hectares have been restored (Ethiopian Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Climate Change, 2024).

Though the 2030 goals still seem distant, the progress achieved so far demonstrates that resilience in the Sahel is possible, provided that financial pledges are fulfilled and inter-state cooperation is reinforced.

Conclusion

At the Climate Forum held in Dakar in March 2024, the President of the Pan-African Agency of the Great Green Wall declared:

“The Great Green Wall is not a line of trees; it is a line of hope. It traces the boundaries of Africa’s rebirth.”

Combating desertification cannot succeed without an integrated approach that unites science, governance, and international solidarity. Scientifically, the use of satellite data, climate modeling, and modern agroforestry practices now makes it possible to monitor soil dynamics and adapt crops to new climate conditions. Institutionally, environmental governance must be rethought. Coherence must be established among agricultural, water, and energy policies; conflicting practices must be avoided; and coordination among local actions must be strengthened. The participation of local authorities and rural communities is indispensable, as externally imposed solutions cannot succeed without local ownership.

The Sahel is not merely a geographical area; it is an ecological, humanitarian, and symbolic frontier where Africa’s future is being determined. The degradation of this region is not only a sign of environmental disaster but also of a civilizational crisis. To protect its lands, restore its soils, and safeguard its people is to act for political stability, food security, and regional peace.