Africa’s Reinforced Armed Conflicts and Security Challenges, What Next?

The deadliest wars Africa ever experienced in the 1990s are, agreeably, gone seemingly for good. The wider Africa which amounts to 90% of the continent lives the longest peace but in poverty. Broadly speaking security challenges across Africa are less violent on a continental scale and poverty, not wars of any form, remains a top and severe challenge. However, the opportunity for conflict-snowball remains high.

Reports expect the year 2025 will be the same as the previous ones, and that the continent of Africa will go through reinforced sporadic conflicts, mainly in the eastern and western regions. While global powers disengage shifting a significant focus more on their internal issues in light of the advent of Trump into international politics, Africa’s security challenges will inevitably be exacerbated. As of December 2024, over ten clusters of active armed conflicts have been recorded in Africa, according to ACLED’s conflict watchlist-2025. Two leading quintessential developments showcase this.

The catastrophic conflict in Sudan that has left over half of its population in need of humanitarian aid appeared to be a geopolitical time bomb. If the belligerents’ war for control of the state and its spoils does not come to a peaceful end immediately, the carnage will get worse. And, according to Clingendael Institute, a Dutch think tank that has been modeling the crisis 6m-10m Sudanese could die from starvation by 2027.

Similarly, in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a prolonged civil war, since the 1990s, showed a dramatic shift in power as the major city, Goma, fell to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel for the first time in more than a decade. This recent rapid escalation is expected to have a spillover effect in the apparent repeated refusal of multiple diplomatic solutions offered by Turkish officials, among a few others, over the devastating military one. According to the Center for Preventive Action (CPA), the conflict in DRC remains today as one of the deadliest generating a humanitarian crisis with twenty-one million people in dire need of urgent medical and food aid.

In this brief analysis, two relevant concerns will be entertained abridged. First, the discussion highlights features of the conflicts reinforced in different corners of the geography in light of factors that trigger and endure. Then the analysis sheds light on what awaits the continent of Africa more next.

Features of Contemporary African Conflicts

Arguably, three common factors could define, broadly speaking though, Africa’s security challenges emanating from conflicts of all forms. These are control over rich resources, change for democratic rules, and ending long-time dictatorial regimes.

Africa’s resource conflicts are not uncommon and typically widespread. Yet, there is no substantial evidence that shows concerted genuine efforts have been undertaken from within aiming either to avoid potential conflicts over who should control rich resources or settle existing conflicts of all forms peacefully. This is in addition to the continued legacy of colonialism and the roles of giant multinational companies in Europe and North America to control and influence over the continent’s rich resources.

Possibilities that conflict would arise in Africa because of interest in controlling fields of scarce resources could be understandable given, for instance, poor state governance and rampant corruption. But understandable as well should be the glaring fact that conflicts could be avoided and the formation and the prosperity of the European economic zone is a living example to this.

Equally violent, in nature, with conflicts for controlling resources, is the deep-seated problem of undemocratic rules which usually lay the foundation for Africa’s coup d'état. The African Union Peace and Security Council once attributed endemic unconstitutional removal of governments to deficiencies in governance and manipulation of the constitution[s], among others. And then, more conflicts exacerbating Africa’s complicated security challenges brewed. Very often post-coup regimes remain heavily militarily endangering worse forms of violence and loss of civilians surpassing significantly the fatality figures under undemocratic regimes. A typical example in Burkina Faso shows the death of over six thousand citizens in just over six months between January to June 2023 way far from the number of fatalities Ouagadougou recorded over the last decade.

Similarly, the sternness of African politics emanating from an entrenched political culture favoring long-time dictatorial regimes marks a key feature of contemporary African conflicts. The world’s youngest continent Africa with a median age of 18 hosts most of the world’s long-serving leaders of septuagenarians. Where on earth does a political society experience a lifetime ruling political force, both as a leader and a ruling party? In the continent’s predominant political culture where dictatorial tendencies reign, leaders of extended tenure have been lacking meaningful plans for succession nor are they known to offer assurances for a smooth transition of power. In many cases, Africa’s aged leaders and parties face a sudden decline in popularity followed by violent ends leading to the demise of leaders and the disbanding of parties adding to the continent’s layers of security challenges.

Africa’s Security Challenges, What Next?

Three scenarios could be outlined. Existing security challenges impetus to swiftly bring back the era of war-lords the continent’s fragile but commendable records in terms of democratic transfer of power awash is the first scenario. Second, the moto of African solutions to African problems will consolidate and reassure the strengthened decline of conflicts and promote addressing security challenges through democratic means. The third, scenario dictates the continuation of statuesque where predominantly violent regions remain unchanged and the wider peaceful subregions of the geography live in limbo with no meaningful intervention for sustainable improvements including from the Africans themselves.

Who would have thought Africa would face a fairly soaring and repeated occurrence of coups that were typical African things in the continent’s post-colonial political culture in the 1980s and 90s? Over the past few years, Africa’s eastern and western regions have been marred by violent overthrowing of governments. Elements of armed putschists with covert support from Western powers and their allies have recently gained growing momentum with a possibility of splitting up to consolidate their grip on power and get firmly established. Sudan’s ongoing war since April 2023 is a case in point. Once a united force teamed up to contribute to the security of Sudan’s post-Al Bashir transition, the armed group later broke away becoming now two violent forces commanded by unscrupulous warlords vying for the sole control of the state. Reports have that the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced its intention to establish an autonomous government in areas it controls following the signing of a political charter in Kenya.

As for the second scenario, Africans have been focusing broadly on two main tasks to ensure old humiliating periods hitherto remained a daunting stereotype largely in the superior West. The tasks comprise, for one, detaching the continent’s political discourse rooted in the colonial legacy that sees Africans as warmongering tribals and inept by deconstructing the discourse and inducing Pan-Africanism. This rhetorical war supports the second task of promoting the idea of African solutions to African problems and their wider practicality. Despite setbacks, due to the lack of genuine and timely support promised by the powerful state and non-state actors commendable changes have been recorded that encourage Africans to pursue the path undeterred.

But still, there is a lingering condition in Africa to consider attributed to the sound presence of a third scenario. Africa’s political geography has been vulnerable to historical occurrences that last to this day dividing its regions in terms of stability and growth. As such there is a wider understanding that the piece of land where repeated violence occurs will remain the source of security challenges Africa endures and the world by extension. This, however, has been proved wrong over the last two decades Somalia, for instance, is the quintessential manifestation. Now, a stateless Somalia is a thing in the past. Mogadishu, after a few decades of seemingly endless civil war, is a normal country where state apparatuses have fully been restored enjoying a consolidating security with genuine support flooding from allies led by Türkiye.    

What is next in light of the three scenarios outlined above? Scenario-first and third are events expected to perpetuate for a long and are less likely to materialize in full terms. The third scenario is the highly likely event to represent Africa’s next. Unexpected and violent undemocratic removal of governments is slowly surging nonetheless they suffer a continued decline in popularity in Africa. Unlike the youths in the 1980s and '90s, the new generation dominated by a young population favors a peaceful transition of power. This gives a huge hope that the longest peace that engulfs a large swath of the geography will consolidate and the question tied to Africa’s next could predictably better.

Reference

Africa File, January 30, 2025: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/africa-file-january-30-2025

African Conflict in 2025: https://futures.issafrica.org/blog/2025/African-Conflict-in-2025?utm_source=Institute+for+security+studies&utm_campaign=532ede1c40-Africa_Tomorrow_Blog&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_67de4bd666-532ede1c40-231471617

Armed conflicts in Africa: a continent “trapped in stereotypes?”: https://www.afd.fr/en/impact-interventions-conflict-africa

The silent catastrophe: Sudan's continuing hunger crisis: https://spectator.clingendael.org/en/publication/silent-catastrophe-sudans-continuing-hunger-crisis

Conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo: https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violence-democratic-republic-congo

Three frontlines in Africa's resource conflicts: https://www.diis.dk/en/research/three-frontlines-in-africas-resource-conflicts

Africa’s 2024 Security Trends in 10 Graphics: https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africa-2024-security-trends-graphics/

Press statement of the 432nd meeting of the PSC on 'Unconstitutional changes of Governments and popular uprisings in Africa': https://www.peaceau.org/en/article/press-statement-of-the-432nd-meeting-on-unconstitutional-changes-of-governments-and-popular-uprisings-in-africa

Africa’s ageing leaders: succession race in Cameroon, Congo, and Equatorial Guinea could destabilise the region: https://theconversation.com/africas-ageing-leaders-succession-race-in-cameroon-congo-and-equatorial-guinea-could-destabilise-the-region-235713