China, United States, Russia… Africa More Than Ever at the Crossroads of Geopolitical Rivalries | ANALYSIS

In every region of the world, political stakes have multiplied decade after decade. While their nature evolves according to historical periods and doctrinal shifts, their underlying motivations remain largely unchanged. Chief among them is animus dominandi—the instinct for domination with which humankind seems intrinsically endowed, and which continues to be reflected in the behavior of certain states.

Today, Africa as a whole has become the center of gravity of these political stakes. Endowed with strategic resources that fuel geopolitical rivalries, and driven by the economic growth of a continent still in the process of construction, Africa has increasingly become a battleground for competing powers drawn to both its resources and its future potential. This article analyzes the conflicting geopolitical dynamics already unfolding on the continent, in the face of actors who do not always prioritize the well-being of Africans themselves.

Why Does Africa Attract So Much Interest?

External interest in Africa is not a recent phenomenon. The transatlantic slave trade and colonialism had already assigned Africa a “peripheral” role—borrowing from Wallerstein—destining it to serve as a supplier of labor and raw materials to the rest of the world. Over the centuries, the forms of exploitation have evolved alongside independence movements and technological progress, but the underlying principles and stakes have remained largely unchanged.

Today, three major factors continue to explain the growing interest of major powers in Africa:

-        Critical Natural Resources for the Energy and Technological Transition

The continent holds massive reserves of minerals essential to decarbonization and high-tech industries: 30% of global strategic mineral reserves; 60% of global cobalt production, primarily from the Democratic Republic of the Congo; Africa also remains the world’s leading producer of platinum, chromium, diamonds, and manganese. In addition, it possesses significant reserves of lithium (Zimbabwe, Namibia, Mali, Nigeria), copper (DRC, Zambia), rare earths (South Africa, Burundi), and graphite (Mozambique, Tanzania). These minerals have become the “black gold” of the 21st century, indispensable for batteries, wind power, solar energy, and electronics.

-        Demographic Explosion and the Market of the Future

Africa’s population is expected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050 (25% of the global population) and nearly 4 billion by 2100. It is the only continent where the working-age population will continue to grow significantly while the rest of the world ages. This makes Africa a unique market, labor force, and reservoir of future growth.

-        Reinforced Geostrategic Position

Africa remains central to global trade, located at the heart of nearly all major maritime routes—from Bab el-Mandeb to the Gulf of Guinea, via the Cape of Good Hope and the Atlantic Ocean. This grants the continent an exceptionally important geostrategic position for securing global trade flows.

Geopolitical Confrontations in Africa

These attributes have made Africa a highly coveted continent. Yet its still-fragile quest for emancipation and sovereignty must contend with “voracious” international partners whose rivalries increasingly turn the continent into a theater of confrontation—sometimes even direct conflict.

United States vs. China: Strategic Minerals

Strategic minerals sit at the forefront of great-power competition. Between critical minerals and rare earths, a confrontation—still largely cold—has already begun between Washington and Beijing. The complex interdependence of global trade ensures that control over strategic exports translates into power.

China currently dominates around 70% of global rare earth production, upon which American companies heavily depend. This explains why Donald Trump—viewing the world through a distinctly “business-oriented” lens—has been obsessed with dismantling this Chinese advantage and reducing U.S. dependence.

In this context, U.S. accusations against Nigeria regarding an alleged “genocide” of Christians, as well as Washington’s proactive role in peace negotiations between the DRC and Rwanda, appear as attempts to strengthen American influence over mineral-rich countries already integrated into China’s economic orbit. Similarly, the stalled renegotiation of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) since September reflects Washington’s intention to use it as leverage to secure access to strategic minerals in signatory states

France vs. Russia: Influence and Resources

In the Sahel, France has been effectively displaced by Russia. French military operations—from Serval to Barkhane—failed to curb the terrorist threat that has plagued the region, particularly Mali, for over 15 years. Over time, Paris lost attractiveness, legitimacy, credibility, and influence, to the benefit of Russia—whom it accuses of orchestrating anti-French sentiment across Francophone Africa.

While it is true that Russian public diplomacy blends strategic communication and propaganda—often relying on coordinated social media networks—the root causes of France’s declining legitimacy lie primarily in its own Africa policy, which has struggled to fully break with colonial legacies and imperial reflexes.

Since its withdrawal from the Sahel, France has entered a near-information war with Russia. Two years ago, President Macron urged French ambassadors to be more aggressive on social media. In August 2025, the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs even launched an X account (@FrenchResponse) aimed at countering narratives perceived as anti-French or as disinformation—likely originating from Russian digital proxies.

Russia, for its part, does not conceal its propaganda efforts and is often guilty of precisely what it accuses others of. Yet the friction between Paris and Moscow extends beyond influence alone. Resource exploitation by Russian-linked groups in the Sahel is also at stake. The nationalization of uranium by Niger’s government—previously operated by the French group Orano—adds another layer to these tensions.

Russia vs. Ukraine: A War That Spilled Over

Beyond Africa’s coveted resources, a European conflict has begun to spill onto African soil: the Russia–Ukraine war. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the conflict has not remained confined to Eastern Europe.

In July 2024, a terrorist attack in Tinzaouaten, Mali, killed 84 people. On July 29, 2024, a spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence (GUR), Andriy Yusov, publicly stated that Ukraine had provided “necessary information” to rebels to carry out the attack, aiming to counter Russian forces and Wagner in Mali. Ukraine’s ambassador to Senegal, Yurii Pyvovarov (also accredited to Mali), confirmed support for the operation through intelligence sharing.

Later, on November 7, 2025, a vessel named Mersin, suspected of belonging to Russia’s “shadow fleet,” suffered four explosions at the port of Dakar. While no Ukrainian authority has officially claimed responsibility, many observers suspect Kyiv’s involvement. These incidents confirm the geographic displacement of an intra-European conflict onto African soil—dragging the continent into geopolitical rivalries that do not inherently concern it.

Conclusion

In sum, Africa has become more than ever a crossroads of geopolitical stakes and rivalries. The continent’s vast resources inherently elevate its geopolitical importance, compounded by its geostrategic position.

Today, Africa must simultaneously respond to the development demands of a politically aware and increasingly assertive youth, while crafting a smart, strategic policy capable of shielding itself from the consequences of resurgent imperialism and the geopolitical rivalries that now shake the continent.

Africa has become the center of gravity of global geopolitics. Between critical minerals, influence struggles, and disinformation, the continent is bearing the full brunt of rivalries that have shifted onto its terrain—transforming it into a focal point of power struggles.

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