Where Will the Next Coup be in Africa?

Whereas it is unfeasible to affirm where the next coup will be in Africa, deficiencies in governance systems of many countries provide a guide to which states are at risk.

A chain of African countries, from coast to coast, ruled by leaders who seized power by force, has become the longest corridor of military rule on Earth. The military takeover in the West African nation of Niger, completed Africa’s coup belt which spans the continent, from Guinea in the west to Sudan in the east.

An entire belt south of the Sahara has had successful unconstitutional changes of government over the past three years, removing democratically elected presidents and tainted family dynasties alike.

According to United Nations report on coups in Africa, there have been 98 successful coups since 1952. Jonathan Powell, an associate professor at the University of Central Florida, said the most coups had occurred in Sudan, where the latest takeover, in 2021, seeded an explosive military feud that recently grew into full-scale war.

Where Will the Next Coup be in Africa

Whereas it is unfeasible to affirm where the next coup will be in Africa, deficiencies in governance systems of many countries provide a guide to which states are at risk.

Recognizing the presence of charlatan elections in many African countries, which is often loathed as attempts to build a democratic veneer for authoritarian rule, this provides a fertile ground for the military and political elites to consider unconstitutional change of governments as alternatives.

They also realize that they are likely to face little resistance for their actions, given popular discontent, and there are signs that this message has begun to sink in, some vulnerable leaders have pushed through significant reshuffles of their military top brass, with several instituting renewed scrutiny for allegiance to those in power, perpetually worried about being ousted.  Such pre-emptive moves are seen by many as a signal that the totalitarian leaders are aiming to coup-proof their regimes.

This has been reinforced by several regional and international bodies, who have been categorical in their responses to coups, condemning them as undemocratic interventions in the political systems.  

The African Union (AU) simultaneously suspended countries for unconstitutional changes of government and demanded a return to civilian rule of law. However, the lack of enforcement mechanisms to deter coups d’état and the post-coup reaction, which often culminates in the request for democratic elections, this type of reaction is seen as inadvertently legitimizing the actions of the mutineers while democratic performance continues to plummet. With every country that gets added to the list, it is another indicator that advancement towards democracy in Africa is slowly dying.

Why do citizens celebrate mutineers?

Although African leaders have sounded the alarm over the blow to democracy on a continent where they say decades of hard-won advances are slipping away, for every successful coup d’état, we have seen citizens celebrate, praising the mutineers.

While it is tempting to interpret that street celebrations following the downfall of elected leaders who won the vote with a landslide suggests that democracy is incompatible with African values, the citizens have not lost faith in democracy, and non would wish to leave under military rule, according to many that have been interviewed.

Citizens celebrate military intervention as an expression of frustration with the democratically elected leaders’ performances, who have failed to deliver on their promises. Citizens celebrate the hope that mutineers would pave the way for a more effective form of civilian government, which fits into a long pattern of inability by the political class to speak to the economic challenges and the security and political instabilities in their countries.

People are aware that whereas there are constitutional means to seek redress in a disputed election, there is no means to seek redress for a coup d’état and therefore, democracy remains the preferred system of governance for even those countries where it has not yet been realized.

This is primarily because military regimes have a track record of abusing human rights and presiding over economic stagnation.

Mutineers too understand that undermining their own democratic systems is untenable, this is why you hear mutineers insinuate that they intended to reinstitute the rule of law and build stronger democratic systems.

Anti-French sentiments

Many of the governments that have fallen to coups in Africa have been one-time French colonies. Anti-French sentiment bubbling under the surface began crystallizing publicly in recent years, leading to demonstrations by citizens in favor of the coups. Frustrations build around elected government’s handling of the security situation and the perceived ineffectiveness of French soldiers, who were initially welcomed, to battle insurgencies linked to the Islamic State group and Al-Qaeda believed to be operating in west Africa's Sahel region.

During more than a decade of French anti-jihadist operations, Sahel surpassed the Middle East and South Asia to become the global epicenter of jihadist violence, accounting for 43 percent of 6,701 deaths in 2022, up from 1 percent in 2007, according to the Global Terrorism Index, an annual study by the Institute for Economics and Peace. Coup leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger rode to power on a rising tide of anti-French sentiment.

Analysts say that discontent against French influence in Senegal, which witnessed political unrest last year, and in Ivory Coast, where the president is an ally of Paris, could be a motivating factor for would-be mutineers.

Conclusion

The trend of coups d’état and their changing dynamics, relatively non-violent in nature, fast and cheered among the general public, which significantly differs from the ancient ones involving bloodshed, require corresponding approach. Without addressing the issue in accordance with varying manifestations, a likelihood of further spread is inevitable.

References

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